However, I will seek in this article to identify the key factors that will determine the evolution of the prices of the agricultural commodities in the coming years. First and foremost, vale remember a question that we must perform to identify the odds of recovery in prices of agricultural commodities: was there a bubble in prices when they reached maximum levels? This question not has been able to be answered while those prices reached their historical highs. However, we know that the outbreak of the crisis caused investors to seek put except its capital by what bet not only to traditional assets, but is also highly likely that (not only agricultural) commodities, have been the target of a portion not despicable of them given the upward trend observed. Considering the above, we can assume that they corresponded a (not clearly specified) part of the maximum prices of agricultural commodities to a bubble which originated around them. It can be assumed that around 10% of maximum prices were explained by speculative market behavior. The other part of the rise observed in the prices of agricultural commodities had solid foundations.
The search for energy alternatives to oil has led to the development of biofuels, which has generated additional demand for agricultural commodities. On the other hand, the improvement in the social situation of emerging economies caused a change in the diet of its people that drove the demand for food. Both the demand for agricultural commodities for biofuels production as well as one intended to feed the population, maintain the growing trend that came looking, once overcome the crisis. For this year, you can expect that such demands observed minimal variation in relation to 2008. Basis supports the expectation about the dynamics in the component of demand for biofuels? The strong (and unexpected) increase in the price of oil, has served as a warning of the high risk that represents the dependency of this source of energy, which drives that the development of large volumes of biofuels production accelerates.